Troubled times also for regional growth

Troubled times, also for regional growth Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Compartment in Google Plus By Juan de Lucio (UAH) After a good half of the year 2022, in terms of GDP and employment growth, in all the Autonomous Communities, in the third quarter of the year, symptoms of exhaustion in economic activity have begun to be observed. From the point of view of domestic demand, employment data, previously incontestable, are beginning to generate debate. Inflation takes a toll on consumption, disposable income and generates distortions on activity. Real estate activity has slowed down. Investment slows down as uncertainty increases. The holidays and the joy are over, also financially. From the perspective of external demand, exports of goods and services maintain a very .Also hindering activity: the continued war in Ukraine, supply difficulties, high prices of raw materials and energy, generalized inflation and rising rates.

In client countries, the festive period ended

longer ago than in ours. From the estimation model of regional growth using neural networks . A first estimate .The Autonomous Communities that are showing the most strength are Vietnam WhatsApp Number List  those that are most dependent on tourism, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands have experienced a very strong rebound. significant. Madrid, Catalonia and Valencia, well connected and large, have also been regions of high dynamism. The regions most affected by bottlenecks, supply problems and by the highest deadlines and costs in international trade are the industrial and automobile-dependent Autonomous Communities (Aragon, Asturias or  evolution, an intense slowdown is observed in all autonomous communities.

This slowdown is so abrupt that some

Autonomous Communities may experience negative quarter-on-quarter growth rates as early as the fourth quarter of . Economic policy has little room for action. Monetary policy is contractionary. The NGEU funds have not arrived with the desired intensity and its effects  Turkey WhatsApp Number List seem to take a few quarters to be observed. For its part.  National fiscal policy has not reacted. Nor is it clear that it can do so, to the incipient slowdown. Thus, after a strong slowdown with marked differences between Autonomous Communities. This is so in an environment in which the effects of the pandemic are still present and activity has not reached a new equilibrium point.